National League
New York Mets
By Alan Schwarz
Special to ESPN.com
Wild-Card Resembled: 2003 Marlins, at least offensively. Although the Mets have assembled one of their strongest lineups ever -- with the core some mix of David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and Cliff Floyd -- Willie Randolph is one of the most aggressive managers in the big leagues. He runs Jose Reyes a ton, just like Florida did with Juan Pierre, and will exploit the Derrek Lee-type speed of Wright and Beltran to keep the pressure on opponents.
Why They Won't Win the Division: Bobby Cox and John Schuerholz, just like the '03 Marlins. After Atlanta's 14 straight division titles, including the last several during heavy roster turnover, it's foolish not to consider it the favorite. (Even though John Smoltz has coyly suggested the Mets are the team to beat.) The Braves have a more reliable rotation than New York does -- Smoltz and Tim Hudson have nowhere near the question marks that Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine carry -- and a good enough offense to win more games than the Mets.
Why They'll Win the Wild Card: The NL West is a shambles; no second-place team should win anything close to the high 80s the Mets will. The Phillies need another frontline starter to morph into a serious contender. The only other team that should give New York a run for the wild card is … Houston Astros
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